EPONA + AMALTHEA

[soulping]

[You land in a boat in the midst of the sea. The boat itself is simple enough, with only two embellisments; a masthead in the shape of a pair of horse and goat’s heads, and a clunky-looking cannon sitting right in the middle. Fog surrounds you; you can barely see past the edge of the boat.

There are also a collection of rather sparkly Epona and Amalthea-coloured cannon balls at your feet.]

Comments

[Starting Position]

[soulping]

[Where do you land?]

Re: [Starting Position]

[goodbyenurse]

RANDOM.ORG SAYS 1.

[BEGIN]

[soulping]

[your cannon sits ready]

Re: [BEGIN]

[goodbyenurse]

[Staring at the canon. Then at her apparent partner. Then back at the canon.]

It seems we need to determine the optimal means in order to destroy our opponent. We also must move after we have fired... and it seems our starting position only has three possible moves. There is much I do not understand... we will need to treat the first round as a means to gather information.

[gandere]

Don't tell me you want to intentionally give away our position. That sort of thing is a risk in a game like this.

[ There's a 1/9 chance they won't be hit regardless, but with Epona's luck on her shoulders... ]

[goodbyenurse]

We must fire and then move, and in doing so we will give away our former position. The enemy knows me well, they will be expecting a logical rationale to our actions. If they know I fired from 1, they will target 5 next in order to it the square with maximum maneuverability.

I would say our first should go to square 6. That way they will know we came from a spot adjacent to 1. Then, we should opt not to move. That way they will target a square adjacent to this one, and definitely give us a free round to fire.

[gandere]

[ The plan did match up with the one in her head. Fire from their first spot, then sit to wait without making a move. ]

I don't think half the teams out there are smart enough to figure out this sort of play, but...

[ She's just a bit apprehensive about sitting still for a round. ]

What if they manage to luck out and hit us?

[goodbyenurse]

Then we have taken one damage, and their next shot will be to a different square because they will know where we were, and thus that we have moved.

We will be at a disadvantage, but that is only an 11.11% chance of occurring.

[gandere]

Fine, that's a low enough percentage at any rate.

[ Is it even accurate? She's figuring out the math slowly in her mind due to her own education level. ]

[goodbyenurse]

I agree...

Schooler, was it not? Takshaka prides themselves on being a team of foolish heroes. Let us crush them swiftly and efficiently.

[gandere]

[ Trying so hard to not be upset about firing at Takshaka, but... Swan is with his team so he'll help them. ]

Yes, let's do that.

[soulping]

[Your cannon fires, shot hurtling off into the fog, so far you can't hear anything when it finally lands. Nothing at all.

Another cannon booms somewhere south of you... something splashes into the water on the right.]

[gandere]

... Hm, you do know what that tells us, don't you?

[goodbyenurse]

[Thinkinggggg.]

They did not hit us. Moreover, the shot came from the south. 5 and 9 would be southeast... thus we are looking at 4, 7, and possibly 8. Of them, the squares to be moved to are 'all of them, aside 3.'

However, if we look at the distribution between the possible moves, and assume Takshaka did move after their first shot, the squares with the highest odds of having them will be either 5 or 7. Additionally, I believe we should move south, to 4.

Is that also what it told you?

[gandere]

It told me that we can't hear if we fire off that much into the distance which means every time we do hear something, they're not that far away.

I think we should aim to shoot at 7. There's no way they would have moved to 5 knowing that it's such a valuable position.

[goodbyenurse]

Seven it is. Then we will move to four ourselves, and next turn head to five.

[gandere]

We're not going to get anywhere if we keep trying to out maneuver them. They need to be drawn into a trap into giving away their position somehow.

[soulping]

[your cannon fires, whump-ing off to 7... a faint splash. the answering cannon shot booms from somewhere more south-east.

the enemy shot splashes into the water behind you.]

[goodbyenurse]

We could simply move into square five. Doing so will ensure we know exactly where the shot comes from.

They will know where we were, but our escape capabilities will be such that they have a 1 in 8 chance of finding us. Our odds of hitting them will be far higher than theirs of us.

[gandere]

[ Oh, they're actually getting pretty close to figuring out where they are then. She worries on the inside, but: ]

Let's do it.

The sooner we end this, the better.

[MOVE 1]

[goodbyenurse]

[>Not moving, and remaining in 1.]

[Move 2]

[goodbyenurse]

[>Moving to 4]

[Move 3]

[goodbyenurse]

[>Moving to 5]

[Move 4]

[goodbyenurse]

[>Remaining at 5]

[Move 5]

[goodbyenurse]

[>Moving to 2]